Real-Time Ridesharing
This is not that bold. And it is not Uber.
It's more just looking at the facts and realizing it's way past time to act.
Here are some facts:
Vermonters drove many kilometers solo in their cars.
Vermonters spent a lot of money on their cars.
Vermonters spent many hours in traffic delays...solo in their cars.
Vermont cars spend most of their time just taking up space and idly depreciating.
Vermont has many lane kilometers (lane miles) of Interstate, Limited Access, State Highway; and, Class 1-4 Town Highway, which are empty most of the time.
While we have been driving, other people around the world have been living lightly and more economically. We have a lot of catching up to do, and we can't if we are still driving cars.
The goal for everyone -- in every measure -- is zero. Zero fatalities. Zero impact. Zero emissions. Zero combustion. If there is a bold idea here, it is the realization that zero combustion means eliminating all internal combustion engine vehicles from Vermont. It doesn't necessarily mean adding electric cars. Vermont can get halfway to zero combustion (for cars) quickly, putting the state in a nimble, ready position: ready for other big moves toward zero -- an athletic stance. Doing this quickly addresses the war in Ukraine (by reducing global oil demand), inflation (by reducing costs and oil demand), and greenhouse gas emissions (by reducing vehicle travel).
The solution: Real-Time Ridesharing
Real-Time Ridesharing is not Uber, a ride-hailing service. (Maybe unregulated taxi is a better description for Uber.) Real-time ridesharing is instant carpool matching. Let your phone app know where you want to go. Confirm the ride match. Walk to the rendezvous point. Get in the car. Arrive at your destination. If you are driving, let the navigation software know your destination and arrival deadline. It will find riders who are going your way. Confirm the ride match. The rendezvous point is inserted in your route automatically.
This energy conservation measure addresses war, inflation, and greenhouse gas emissions all at once. State support and a firm goal of (1) reducing vehicle kilometers/miles traveled (VKT) by half and (2) reducing the private vehicle fleet by half ensure that measurable performance objectives are met. Hesitation could be fatal. This is not an incremental opportunity; network effects are involved; the broader the participation, the better the performance. Do it quickly and broadly and press on, adjusting the implementation until the objectives are achieved. The initial goal of reducing VKT will leave a considerable portion of the private fleet unused and even more underutilized than it already is.
Big savings occur when the fleet shrinks. Current annual depreciation is well over $ 2 billion. Cut the fleet in half to save about $1b/yr. It's a simple model and simple math. There is a first-mover advantage in ridding Vermont of what will soon be obsolete technology.
Reader, I can imagine what you are thinking. There are four cars for my nuclear family of three people (one on blocks in the barn). What am I supposed to do with them? Selling them downcountry to some place like Florida is my plan, leaving the least bad car for last. Right now is a good time because used cars -- even ones with infernal internal combustion engines -- are in demand. As I divest fossil-fueled equipment, I will get rid of the biggest investment first, the newest vehicle, which conveniently has the worst fuel economy and the greatest potential for future environmental damage. Let somebody else carry that risk.
Suppose I get rid of half of my cars and pocket that money. Nice. Also, my depreciation is cut in half, approximately -- along with a bunch of other expenses. That's a steady stream of savings. Imagine if everyone did that. Vermonters' $2+ billion/year* of vehicle depreciation would be cut in half. A billion per year is a lot of money in our pockets and may burn a hole, too. That can lead to a Khazzoom–Brookes rebound. In order to maintain the emissions reduction, a part of it will need to be absorbed and returned as incentives for further impact reductions. Jevons Paradox lurks around every corner; we just have to deal with it.
Occasionally, I may need to borrow a car from family. I am confident they will cooperate in saving money and doing less damage to the planet. As a backup, I can join CarShare Vermont, which will expand dramatically and benefit from the same network effects that will make real-time ridesharing successful. The CarShare people care for the cars and even pay for the gas.** I can choose the machine that is right for the job. They will have plenty of variety for me to choose from when half the current fleet is sold. And I won't feel the urge to take a personal F150 out to pick up a gallon of milk just because it is sitting in the driveway. But I might use the CarShare Roadster -- just once to see what it's like.
* Purchase & Use Tax/Tax Rate=Depreciation: $134,100,000/0.06=$2.235billion. AOT Factbook 2022, p.20
** Vermont pre-pandemic sales in 2019 of gasoline: (716,200gal/day)*365days= 261.4 million gallons. eia.gov